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- Market Munch π | 21 October 2022
Market Munch π | 21 October 2022
Liz Truss waves the white flag, Japanese inflation heats up, and America sees Taiwan invasion next year. π₯
Happy morning, Munchers! π
As always, here is your daily dose of the news that matters, from Wall Street to Dalal Street - in 5 minutes and 12 seconds.
That's less time than it takes for Liz Truss to wave the white flag, Turkish inflation to hit 80%+, and Japanese inflation to surge. π₯
Letβs dive in.
Whatβs hot, whatβs not?
Market Commentary
US markets remained muted after investors see more tightening from the Fed's end.
Markets are now pricing in a peak benchmark rate of 5%.
Traders think no plan is better than Liz Truss's plan - the Pound rallied after the announcement of her resignation.
Story Roundup
1 - Bye bye, Ms. Truss! π
We are witnessing a new era in modern British politics.
Liz Truss resigned yesterday - making history as the shortest-serving British Prime Minister ever.
The easy favorite now seems to be Rishi Sunak - the guy who correctly predicted that markets would spark with turmoil if she went ahead with debt-funded tax cuts.
And guess what. They did.
However, some MPs dislike him. His resignation as Chancellor had a pretty big hand in getting Boris Johnson out of office.
My bet's on him though.
Diwali might be coming to Downing Street. π
2 - Japan's economy seems in a hot spot. π₯΅
Inflation in Japan rose to an 8-year high of 3%.
This is the steepest increase in recent history, with prices only rising this fast in 1991.
Markets more-or-less saw through this - with inflation spiking because of 2 big things.- a weak Yen- sky-high energy prices
Their central bank is still reluctant to raise interest rates in some unorthodox ultra-loose monetary policy.
And this widening policy gap has caused the Yen to shed about 23% of it's value this year.
Sign of the times. πΎ
If there wasn't much news to be worried about - here's some!
The Head of the US Navy warned that America needs to be prepared for the possibility of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan before 2024.
He's mainly emphasized this because of the increasing Chinese military activity near the island.
A lot of these drills increased after US House Speaker and master trader Nancy Pelosi landed in Taiwan during summer.
Congress is soon gonna vote on sending $10 billion to Taiwan to buy weapons.
We'll see what the narrative is when that time comes. π£
In Year 7 economics, you learn that high inflation is fought with higher interest rates.
With inflation at 83%, Turkey doesn't think that way.
They just cut rates from 12% to 10.5%.
In fact, their President has said time-and-time again that he believes "interest rates to be the mother of all evil".
The Turkish Lira has tumbled almost 30% since the start of the year as a killer combination of soaring inflation and policy missteps led to a sell-off.
There isn't a single government that can't be overthrown by an empty dinner table. π₯
5 - Retail traders seek shelter in cash. π°
This year's brutal sell-off has spooked retail investors - with most deciding to pile into cash or leave markets entirely.
Retail money market funds have seen 10 straight weeks of inflows. They're also a little more attractive, since the Fed has started hiking interest rates.
It's the first time in a long time that you can get some return - and people are eating it up.
Ripsawed. πͺ
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Hope you enjoyed this issue of the Market Munch. If you've got any feedback - good or bad (π) you can hit reply to this email. Thanks a ton for reading!
Cheers, and have a lovely day. π
Aryaansh